UK avoids recession however progress stays elusive

At present’s high tales

• Governments and worldwide organisations are stepping up monetary assist for Turkey and Syria because the loss of life toll from this week’s earthquake surpassed 22,000 individuals, with tens of millions anticipated to be displaced.

• Japan is predicted to nominate Kazuo Ueda, a revered financial coverage skilled, as its new central financial institution chief, ending hypothesis amongst international buyers over the successor to Haruhiko Kuroda, who oversaw a decade of insurance policies designed to maintain rates of interest at ultra-low ranges by shopping for huge portions of presidency bonds. The yen climbed in anticipation.

• Moldova’s prime minister Natalia Gavrilita stop, blaming an absence of assist for her authorities because it struggles with the penalties of struggle in neighbouring Ukraine and efforts by Moscow to destabilise the nation.

For up-to-the-minute information updates, go to our dwell weblog

Good night.

It’s maybe an indication of the instances that information this morning of UK progress flatlining within the fourth quarter of final yr was hailed by chancellor Jeremy Hunt as proof that the financial system was “extra resilient than many feared”.

Output shrank greater than anticipated in December, in response to the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics, however GDP for the three-month interval was unchanged, that means the UK had, for now, dodged recession, outlined as two consecutive quarters of adverse progress.

It stays the one G7 member to not have recovered totally from the pandemic, in distinction with the US, which was up 5.1 per cent within the fourth quarter in contrast with 2019, and the eurozone, which was up 2.4 per cent.

One shiny spot is London, the place new knowledge yesterday confirmed the capital powering forward of different areas in England, because of progress in skilled companies, underlining the challenges forward for the federal government in delivering on its promise of “levelling up” left-behind areas.

On the constructive aspect, the outlook for inflation has improved since gasoline costs started to fall. Financial institution of England chief Andrew Bailey advised a parliamentary committee yesterday that public sector staff wanted to take this into consideration when asking for pay rises. The BoE predicts inflation will drop from 10.5 per cent to 4 per cent by the tip of 2023.

Home costs in the meantime are displaying their most widespread falls since 2009 as hovering mortgage charges hit purchaser demand. The typical fee for brand spanking new loans reached 3.67 per cent in December, the best in a decade, in response to BoE knowledge final week.

All of which will likely be on Hunt’s thoughts as he prepares for his Price range on March 15.

Enterprise foyer teams are calling on the chancellor to make use of his speech to pave the best way for progress by way of tax breaks for funding and insurance policies to deal with employee shortages. They’ve additionally voiced considerations that the forthcoming improve in company tax from 19 to 25 per cent will hit firms’ capital spending.

Brexit prices for enterprise in the meantime proceed to mount, particularly in areas reminiscent of chemical substances the place firms now have to stick to UK-badged laws in addition to present EU guidelines, for no tangible achieve. To not point out the query marks nonetheless hanging over the broader regulatory panorama because of the federal government’s intention to “overview or revoke” all leftover EU legal guidelines by the tip of this yr.

As UK chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley notes, the try by Hunt and his boss Rishi Sunak to stress fiscal prudence isn’t made any simpler by noises off from Tory colleagues — particularly these grouped round Sunak’s predecessor Liz Truss — pining for an additional dose of unfunded tax cuts, regardless of the final try ending in catastrophe.

Must know: UK and Europe financial system

Spurred by the decline in money transactions, the UK authorities and the Financial institution of England have began work on the design of a “digital pound”. Learn our explainer on the way it would possibly work and FT client editor Claer Barrett’s piece on whether or not it could be good for customers.

European Fee chief Ursula von der Leyen stated the EU would combat again in opposition to “huge” hidden handouts from China to its industries, in addition to responding to the US risk of inexperienced vitality subsidies. The finance chief of ArcelorMittal, Europe’s largest steelmaker, advised the FT that Brussels wanted to simplify the approvals course of for investments.

German inflation hit a five-month low of 9.2 per cent, however the delayed knowledge might result in an upward revision to final week’s eurozone-wide determine of 8.5 per cent.

Russia stated it could minimize its oil output by 5 per cent or 500,000 barrels a day in response to the value cap imposed by the west. Prime vitality dealer Pierre Andurand stated Vladimir Putin had “misplaced the vitality struggle”. Putin will ship a state-of-the-union handle on February 21, three days earlier than the primary anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine.

Be part of FT correspondents and visitors at our subscriber webinar on February 23 from 1300-1400 GMT to mark the anniversary and what would possibly occur subsequent. Register to your free ticket at ft.com/ukraine-event.

Must know: World financial system

China has pulled again from its participation in a subsea cable undertaking linking Asia with Europe as tensions develop with the US over who builds and owns the infrastructure underpinning the worldwide internet.

Hong Kong is pulling out all of the stops to lure enterprise again after three years of lockdowns in what it known as “most likely the world’s largest welcome ever”. Points of interest embody set-up funds for worldwide firms, visas for international graduates and 500,000 free airline tickets to encourage tourism.

Must know: enterprise

Adidas is going through €700mn in working losses because of its pile of unsold Kanye West “Yeezy” sneakers. The group issued its fourth revenue warning since July, laying out a worst-case state of affairs by which it must write off all of the remaining stock.

Disney is to minimize 7,000 jobs, about 3 per cent of its workforce, as a part of a cost-saving restructuring. The modifications led to activist investor Nelson Peltz calling off his proxy combat in opposition to the corporate which was set to be one of many largest company battles lately.

Credit score Suisse reported its largest annual loss because the 2008 monetary disaster as funding banking slumped and purchasers pulled cash from its wealth administration enterprise. Right here’s our Large Learn on a make-or-break second for the financial institution.

The FT Journal dives into the weird remaining hours of FTX and the way Sam Bankman-Fried and his crew of millennial millionaires misplaced a $40bn crypto empire.

World buyers are betting huge on China’s reopening, snapping up a file $21bn of Chinese language equities because the begin of the yr. The development has been fuelled by constructive financial knowledge printed after the lunar new yr vacation.

Science spherical up

The unfold of antibiotic resistance has revived curiosity within the bacteria-killing viruses generally known as phages, first found and used to combat an infection a century in the past. Learn extra in our particular report: Way forward for Antibiotics.

The inventor of the silicon expertise behind solar energy advised the FT that combining different supplies with the silicon might increase the effectivity of photovoltaic cells that convert daylight into electrical energy from 25 per cent to greater than 40 per cent.

The fusion vitality trade known as for extra political assist to construct on final yr’s breakthrough by US scientists that demonstrated the potential for producing extra vitality from a fusion response than it consumed, dubbed “one of the vital spectacular scientific feats within the twenty first century”.

New expertise that makes use of fibre optics to seek out the causes of coronary heart illness has begun testing at London’s St Bartholomew’s Hospital. The iKOr system measures blood stream across the coronary heart and will ultimately assist many sufferers affected by issues reminiscent of chest pains, whose trigger can’t be recognized with present strategies.

And eventually, the European Area Company is making ready for one of many most formidable house tasks ever, a 12-year mission to the outer photo voltaic system to analyze whether or not three of Jupiter’s moons would possibly assist life.

Some excellent news

College of California researchers have recognized tiny organisms that not solely survive however thrive throughout the first yr after a wildfire. The findings might assist deliver land again to life after fires which can be growing in each measurement and severity.

One thing for the weekend

The FT Weekend interactive crossword will likely be printed right here on Saturday, however within the meantime why not strive at the moment’s cryptic crossword?

Interactive crosswords on the FT app

Subscribers can now clear up the FT’s Every day Cryptic, Polymath and FT Weekend crosswords on the iOS and Android apps