QUESTION: I’ve been following Socrates for fairly some time. It actually appears to offer the long-term view fairly reliably. You mentioned it has taught you. So I take it that’s the reason it’s AI since you didn’t exactly code it to do this stuff?
WK
ANSWER: I created Socrates to watch every thing. As a hedge fund supervisor, I may see how every thing was linked. Learn Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it precisely described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity disaster the identical as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the autumn of Lengthy Time period Capital Administration.
Any errors are mine personally within the interpretation. That’s what I imply by it has taught me loads through the years. A whole lot of shoppers simply depend on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are in all probability one of many essential elements. As soon as once more, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many purchasers get conversant in it and apply their very own interpretations.
Right here is the array we printed in July and we had been touting the August/September interval all 12 months. We are able to see the violent thrust up after which down – the standard panic however over two months. It will depend on the week it typically hits. It referred to as for a Directional Change in October adopted by one other in November after which December made a brand new excessive after which retreated.
Socrates has performed a superb job. As soon as once more, it’s not me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we’re all topic to error. Socrates is just not excellent. The World Market Watch is an ongoing venture and I’m shocked at what number of completely different patterns it’s arising with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Under are the World Market Watch studies for the 1932 low. We are able to see that it’s not excellent. When it’s saying a “New Sample Forming” it means this can be a new sample not but within the database. The variety of patterns is approaching 100,000. However, it did decide the 1932 low appropriately. Not on daily basis into that low. Thus, it’s not a buying and selling software, however one thing to only warn you to concentrate. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.
